Running is now part of my life for so many years, and aside from my 22.000+ kilometers process already in progress, I have read, studied and analyzed tons of data. And I am really curious… How far can a human being run? The answer is hard to be funneled in a couple of sentences, because neither did science is able to provide a certain answer. Running has events that start from 50-60 meters and last up to countless days, aka ultrarunning, which grows exponentially year by year. Of course, some years ago, maybe decades, short races where the most popular. Usain Bolt with his outstanding achievements in the 100 and 200 meters, two world records that are unbeaten for more than 14 years now, since August 2009.
Usain Bolt could run 44 km / hour!
Speaking about this, we should put on the table the 9.58 seconds for 100 meters, the famous number, that looks unbeatable for so long. But is it? In terms of speed, Usain Bolt ran that distance with 37.58 km / hour, an unbelievable development of force. But this is not his best potential as, in 2011, some Belgian scientist analyzed closely a race he finished in September in 9.76 seconds – two years after setting the world record – and they discovered that Bolt hit an outrageous 44 km / h at the 68 meter mark, which probably meant that in 2009 he could have accelerated even faster at a point in the 9.58 time! The speed generated by Bolt broke all calculation that said, before 2009, that a below 9.60 time for 100 meters will be likely in 2030!
We need to wait… 230 more years until somebody will run faster
Since this happened in 2009, we may need to wait some more time. How long? In the same article a dazzling number is mentioned: 230! Years, yes! Is that likely? According to studies, yes. But, as Usain Bolt proved everything can be rewritten, so a more optimistic scenario offers some hope, in the sense that a runner can go in the neighborhood of 9.40 or slightly less. But in fully ideal conditions. It is hard to achieve, but not impossible, as I have experienced myself how a perfect race day can look like. Speaking about perfect conditions, I am upscaling the discussion from 100 meters to 42.195 kilometers, because the marathon is more of a flavor of the day in recent years.
2019 – first marathon in under two hours
The perfect conditions were set in October 2019 for Eliud Kipchoge, so he can run, first time ever, a marathon under 2 hours. And so he did, in 1:59:40. Having a lot of pacers, that organized in front of him as a flock, to cut wind, with a front car that also had an impact, with a perfect weather window and with the perfect surface in Prater Park from Wien. This was not considered as an official achievement, but it was still a very massive breakthrough! Kipchoge dominated this marathon world for so long, round at least five years, but in 2023, Kelvin Kiptum appeared almost out of nowhere and at Chicago, not necessary in ideal conditions, sets a blasting 2:00:35 world record! Now, there is no more question if a marathon can be run under two hours, because it should probably be in 2024 officially also, but… how fast can a human run a marathon?
10% chances for 2032, become a run reality 13 years earlier
As in the situation of Usain Bolt, the initial predictions of a sub 2 hours marathon, indicated by studies, forecasted a horizon of 2032. May 2032! But not as a certainty, but as 10% chances! Now, as mentioned, I have questioned a lot what happened with Kiptum in some regards, because many things look strange, but it is true that technology evolved in such a way in which predictions can be easily altered and beaten. So we had in 2019 an unofficial marathon ran under 2 hours and will probably have the official one run in 2024, at official time. Many years before the 10% (!) prediction, but how fast can actually a marathoner can run and cover the 42.195 kilometers distance?
How fast can somebody go in a marathon?
The same study here, offers very interesting facts, and places the best possible result at a marathon race, for a male, somewhere slightly below 1:58! 1:57:58, more specific. Now, since science is pretty accurate, but also conservatory, against the evolution part that can met a quantum leap at any time, thanks to a special shoe or to a special substance that can enhance endurance and speed. In reality, I think nobody can predict how fast we can run, but it is very good we can have some rough benchmarks.
Photo source: thequint.com