Last time we were discussing about The Netherlands winning the World Cup 2026, as for the prediction. Meanwhile, the last 32 divided in two, and the Dutch didn’t make it. This was a great shock on paper, but the one putting them out, Morocco, proved not only to deserve the qualification, but also to be the better team. So the penalties knock out was less than they really deserved. We can’t say the same about Germany. They dominated clearly Paraguay, but they couldn’t make it further at penalties. Tah shot the decisive over the post. His first ever penalty taken!

Paraguay only true shock of the World Cup 2026

These two were the major surprises from the second round of the World Cup 2026, but in reality, Paraguay is the only true shock, as Morocco has many more things left to be said. Truth being said, like other African nations who performed well in the last 32, like DR Congo, Cote d’Ivoire, Cape Verde, or Senegal, Morocco took full advantage of decades of their people living, learning, and playing football in Europe. Even if it doesn’t make sense, Europe did a great job in proving that the recipe here fits talent world wide.

Senegal 2002, better remembered than Senegal 2026

Senegal was maybe a surprise itself, in the sense that it shouldn’t have been eliminated. Their display against Belgium was sublime until the last minutes, but nobody will remember after 20 years, maybe, that they were far better than Belgium, an abnormal poor squad. Many will think, in 2048, maybe, of Senegal from 2002, which was put out by Turkey in the quarters, at their first participation, but few of the 2026 version. Anyway, now, only 16 teams remain in competition, and from the nine African sides qualified only two made it. Apart from Morocco, we add Egypt. But putting out Australia, at shoot-out is not necessary something you should describe as a great success.

Actually, this still remains the problem of this World Cup 2026, as already anticipated several times. Many poor teams, diluted matches and disproportionate competition. Until now, very few matches of decent quality did happen. And the last 16 are not so much different, apart from some slight exceptions. With Colombia beating Ghana 1-0 and qualifying, this is the complete picture before the quarter finals:

World Cup 2026 last 32 results

1. South Africa – Canada 0-1 (Eustaquio ’90 +2)
2. Brazil – Japan 2-1 (Casemiro ’56, Martinelli ’90+6 / Sano ’29)
3. Germany – Paraguay 1-1 (Havertz ’54 / Enciso ’42) 4:5 p
4. Netherlands – Morocco 1-1 (Gakpo ’72 / Diop ’90+1) 2:3 p
5. Ivory Coast – Norway 1-2 (Diallo ’74 / Nusa ’39, Haaland ’86)
6. France – Sweden 3-0 (Mbappe ’45, ’74, Barcola ’53)
7. Mexico – Ecuador 2-0 (Quinones ’22, Jimenez ’31)
8. England – DR Congo 2-1 (Kane ’75, ’86 / Cipenga ‘7)
9. Belgium – Senegal 3-2 a.e.t. (Lukaku ’86, Tielemans ’89, ‘120+5p / Diarra ’25, I. Sarr ’51)
10. USA – Bosnia & Herzegovina 2-0 (Balogun ’45, Tillman ’82)
11. Spain – Austria 3-0 (Oyarzabal ’36, ’89, Porro ’66)
12. Portugal – Croatia 2-1 (Cristiano Ronaldo ’64p, G. Ramos ’90+4 / Perisic ’53)
13. Switzerland – Algeria 2-0 (Embolo ’10, Ndoye ’46)
14. Australia – Egypt 1-1 (Hany – OG ’55 / Ashour ’13) 2:4 p
15. Argentina  – Cape Verde 3-2 a.e.t (Messi ’29, Lisandro Martinez ’92, Diney – OG ‘111 / D. Duarte ’59, L. Cabral 103)
16. Colombia – Ghana 1-0 (Arias ’14)\

World Cup 2026 last 16 matches

1. Canada – Morocco
2. Paraguay – France
3. Brazil – Norway
4. Mexico – England
5. Portugal – Spain
6. USA – Belgium
7. Argentina – Egypt
8. Switzerland – Colombia

Norway, the dark horse of World Cup 2026

Now, if we look at the last 16 matches, we see only a traditional huge clash for world football: of course, Portugal – Spain. Apart from this, maybe we can “push” Brazil – Norway out from the crowd, because of me supporting the Norwegians, but also because Brazil never beat these guys in their entire history! Looks strange – it is true they plaid only four times – but some of us remember well the display form World Cup 1998, when Norway beat Brazil in the last group game, in a questionable result, 2-1, obtained in the last minutes. Then, Norway qualified, and were put out by Italy.

Italy, only obstacle for Norway

Actually, in their previous three World Cups (1938, 1994, 1998) Norway was always put out of the competition by Italy! Directly, or indirectly (in ’94 Norway finished last in a group where all four teams had four points each! Their only defeat: 0-1 to Italy!). Now, Norway made sure Italy won’t stay in their way, by beating with an aggregated 7-1 in the preliminary round. This facts add some more romantism on my hopes that Norway could become world champion. Of course, against Brazil it won’t be easy, and few see Haaland and co. go thru. But, hey!, for those who remember Brazil’s teams from 1998, 2002, and even 2006, knows that this current one is a joke. So good luck, guys!

At a glance, the picture above, considering the performances from the previous matches, and my hopes as well, the World Cup final stages could look as such:

Quarter finals:

1. Morocco – France
2. Norway – Mexico
3. Spain – USA
4. Argentina – Switzerland

Will Morocco can really challenge France?

Now, I don’t think if there are any serious questions if Morocco and France will qualify. The two should play, like four years ago, for advancing, a bit earlier, and with a more experience Morocco team. France can have problems, but their current form looks much more similar to the one in 2018, than to the 2022 version. What it is clear, we should have an interesting game, with the French favorites. The same goes for Argentina, and Spain. I mean, Messi & co. don’t really have an opponent until the semis, maybe, even if Cape Verde pushed their limits. I don’t see Egypt doing that, and usually Switzerland can’t pretend more than a quarter. Then, I don’t see any issue for Argentina to go further.

Unai Simon beats Walter Zenga’s record!

Spain is a different story. They play a solid football, Unai Simon just become the World Cup record holder for most consecutive minutes without goal conceded, 519, beating Zenga’s record long from 1990, but they are expected to face host of the tournament. Now, if US will eliminate poor Belgium, as I see it coming, given the Belgians form, they might be drained of energy and enthusiasm, but playing at home they might have a card in their hand. Spain, regardless, seems favorite.

Mexico can take advantage of England at this World Cup

The only exception here is a very exotic quarter between Norway and Mexico. In reality, it is not that out of the ordinary, because England – which will play Mexico – had serious issues with RD Congo, and at above 2,000 meters high, against a host team which didn’t conceive any goal as of now, and which is in a solid form, I am not expecting Tuchel’s side to go thru. For me, a bigger surprise will be if England will qualify!

When things stay as discussed here, the semis should look like:

1. France – Spain
2. Norway – Argentina

It would be too much of a push to go further in discussing this. I think it might be more suitable after the last 16, or even after the quarters. Until then, let’s hope the World Cup will really commence with great clashes, and with more football, in terms of the quality of performance, because unlike many, to me the football quality doesn’t lay only in how many goals you score, that is just part of the process. So are the supporters, one of the main ingredient, actually. And now, sadly, the Dutch are gone. We can still enjoy the Norwegians, though. Hopefully until the very end! 🙂

Photo: vg.no